Nigeria Maritime Industry To Grow By 10 Percent In 2019 – NIMASA 

ABIOLA Seun, Tayo Oladipupo

The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has projected the nation’s maritime industry to grow by 10 percent within the next two years.

Disclosing this at the second edition of the Nigerian Maritime Industry Forecast covering the period 2019/2020, in Lagos on Tuesday, Director General, NIMASA, Dakuku Peterside however noted some down- sides to the expected performance which include the outcome of the 2019 general- elections and concerns about the global economy.

 The NIMASA DG also disclosed that the 2019 forecast also predicted 10 percent contribution of the maritime industry to the nation’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP).

He said, “This year’s forecast predicts that the maritime sector has the potentials of contributing at least 10 percent of Nigeria’s GDP in no distant future as Nigeria has the biggest market in Africa and generates about 65 to 67 percent of cargo through put in West and Central Africa and that about 65 percent of oil cargo heading for the region of West and Central Africa will most likely end in Nigerian market.

“The outlook for the economy’s performance in 2019 reflects, on the global side, concerns about a substantial economic growth slowdown, likely higher US interest rates, a stronger dollar and volatile oil prices (US$60pb), and the impact of sentiment surrounding the 2019 general elections and post electoral transition on the domestic side. If election ends in favour of the incumbent that means there will some consistency in policy but if election ends in favour of the opponents, there will be new shifts in terms of policies.”

According to the maritime forecast, the empirical analysis projects the growth of the total fleet size in 2019 over 2018 to be 10.33 percent, easing to 8.75 percent for 2020. Oil tanker fleet size is projected to decrease by 11.2 percent for both 2019 and recover to a positive growth of 0.11 percent by 2020.

The projection for non oil tanker fleet size is estimated to increase by 14.3 percent, in 2019 and 10.2 percent in 2020, while oil rig count is projected to increase by 6.98 percent and 6.5 percent for 2019 and 2020 respectively.

He said the forecast will focus on addressing how the identified emerging trends in the global maritime industry will affect the nation’s maritime sector and opportunities on harnessing the potentials of the sector.

Speaking on effort to develop indigenous shipping, Dakuku said the agency is currently in talks with the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Finance Ministry to create a special intervention fund for the development of infrastructure in the sector.

According to him, asset acquisition and human capacity development are critical elements needed to enable Nigerian play major roles in the maritime and shipping sector.

“Shipping is capital intensive and the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF) is not adequate to address the huge demand for maritime assets. NIMASA is working with other stakeholders and we are looking at other ship financing models.

“We have had series of engagements with the CBN, Federal Ministry of Finance pushing for special intervention funds at special interest rate not more than a single digit interest rate and other incentives that will drive optimal performance in the sector. We shall not relent in our drive to put the right frame work together to help beneficiaries and investors have good return on investment,” he said.

He expressed hope that the forecast would propel the agency to create jobs and contribute more to the economy growth of the nation.

Also speaking, an economic analyst, Dr Doyin Salami, said all indications had showed that the sector is progressing, but not in a manner that is expected, considering huge potential in the sector.

He said, “Maritime volume grow by 10 percent in 2019 according to the Economic Recovery Growth Plan (ERGP)  which is the basis for the budget.”

Salami, an associate professor of the Lagos Business School, stated further that issues around regulations have greatly affected the maritime sector in the past, said the potentials in the industry are grossly underexploited.

He noted that the maritime industry is still far below where it was before Nigeria went into recession in 2016, adding that the growth was still below the expected rate.

He queried: “What is the potential for the entire sector, relative to where it is now?”

According to him, the Nigerian maritime growth will be determined by the economic environment which provides the segment where the maritime sector operates and the global and local activities.

His words,  “Global events and regulations affects Nigeria Maritime sector.

Also, regulatory reports expected that the Petroleum Industry and Governance Bill (PIGB) and the Anti-Piracy bill are both expected to be passed in 2019 and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) convention to be domesticates will also contribute to the growth of the sector.